Recession just around the corner?

j335

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If he follows business practice he will go wherever the product offers the best returns. Which actually could be Canada, my mistake, WCS trades lower than WTI and Brent but also contributes a lower margin and can require additional refining equipment. My claims were based on the fact WCS has higher extraction costs than Brent. No idea how the net margins after refining compare though.

Under Obama oil production increased significantly, fracing has taken off hugely in the US in the last decade. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m

His mandate is USA first, I don't foresee that benefiting Canada

Best return on buying a product? You're confused with investments vs buying....
There's a certain amount equipment in refineries that are set up for heavy oil in the states, so in summary we're more in competition with Venezuela than Saudi.

Too many oil trading experts on this forum, we should stick to our day jobs! Haha
 

Bnorth

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Best return on buying a product? You're confused with investments vs buying....
There's a certain amount equipment in refineries that are set up for heavy oil in the states, so in summary we're more in competition with Venezuela than Saudi.

Too many oil trading experts on this forum, we should stick to our day jobs! Haha

They're buying a raw material (product) and refining it into useful finished goods. One raw material may come at a pricing advantage but it needs to be weighed against the net margin of the finished goods from each raw material. It may cost $5 less to buy but costs $3 more to process and net margin is $3 lower per unit of input so you actually generate more margin on the higher priced raw material.
 

800HMX

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Natural Gas price is not going anywhere in the next 10years - it's hard/expensive to ship between continents. Price will stay below $4.00. No natural gas activity in NA unless it comes with condensate or oil. So in Western Canada, natural gas activity will be focused in NW AB and NE BC.

Condensate trades at a premium to WTI and Oil Sands trades at a discount (WCS). Conventional production has some life above $50 but really needs $60. Heavy Oil has an operational cost around $35 so to recover capital, you need more like $70. Oil Sands have huge capital costs and low op costs, but oil needs to be closer to $70.

Keystone will open up WCS markets and will offer better prices and opportunity.

Capital cost, production cost, transportation and taxes are all way lower in the US. Add on additional taxes (carbon tax) and it becomes more difficult for Canada to be competitive (jobs). If the commodity price moves up, then everyone goes to work. If prices remain soft, then investment, stays in or moves to the US.

If Trump offers investment incentives or if he reduces the amount of imported oil (8-9Mm bbls/day), things could change one way or the other.
 

woody_tobius_jr

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With Trump re-vamping the climate policies...I wonder if DEF will go the way of the doe-doe bird? Fingers crossed


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S.W.A.T.

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Actually no. NH3, google how they make the H or Haber process. Farming would be much different without Nat.Gas

It actually really depends on what formula you want to use depending on the best ratio for germination of time to flower and pollination also depends on crop in question but the answer to the main ingredient to fertilizer is ALWAYS nitrogen. Without nitrogen you lack the main ingredient for growth and photosynthesis to take place. Without nitrogen you lack the ability to create air.
 

pano-dude

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Natural Gas price is not going anywhere in the next 10years - it's hard/expensive to ship between continents. Price will stay below $4.00. No natural gas activity in NA unless it comes with condensate or oil. So in Western Canada, natural gas activity will be focused in NW AB and NE BC.

Condensate trades at a premium to WTI and Oil Sands trades at a discount (WCS). Conventional production has some life above $50 but really needs $60. Heavy Oil has an operational cost around $35 so to recover capital, you need more like $70. Oil Sands have huge capital costs and low op costs, but oil needs to be closer to $70.

Keystone will open up WCS markets and will offer better prices and opportunity.

Capital cost, production cost, transportation and taxes are all way lower in the US. Add on additional taxes (carbon tax) and it becomes more difficult for Canada to be competitive (jobs). If the commodity price moves up, then everyone goes to work. If prices remain soft, then investment, stays in or moves to the US.

If Trump offers investment incentives or if he reduces the amount of imported oil (8-9Mm bbls/day), things could change one way or the other.

I would bet if power plants need to convert to n/g the price will go through the roof.
 

j335

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I would bet if power plants need to convert to n/g the price will go through the roof.

Short term... so much gas in North America it's crazy thanks to fracking.
There's actually a ton of she oil in Canada too but we aren't as cowboy on water usage as the states so we aren't fracking near as much as them. They pull water from rivers and use it to frack with no recycling requirements the they dispose the huge volumes causing earth quakes lol
 
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S.W.A.T.

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Short term... so much gas in North America it's crazy thanks to fracking.
There's actually a ton of she oil in Canada too but we aren't as cowboy on water usage as the states so we aren't fracking near as much as them. They pull water from rivers and use it to frack with no recycling requirements the they dispose the huge volumes causing earth quakes lol

Better double check those facts
 

800HMX

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Short term... so much gas in North America it's crazy thanks to fracking.
There's actually a ton of she oil in Canada too but we aren't as cowboy on water usage as the states so we aren't fracking near as much as them. They pull water from rivers and use it to frack with no recycling requirements the they dispose the huge volumes causing earth quakes lol

Electrical generation using natural gas surpassed coal a couple years ago in NA. Another market for gas for sure, but as mentioned above, technology has opened up access to so much resource that the oversupply is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Wateruse in well completions will be reduced with time and technology. Water could be replaced by N2, CO2, Natural Gas, Foam etc.
 

S.W.A.T.

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Not 100% sure who is doing it, cant remember, but there is a company using a new tech similar to steam injection but requires no water. Wish I could remember who
Electrical generation using natural gas surpassed coal a couple years ago in NA. Another market for gas for sure, but as mentioned above, technology has opened up access to so much resource that the oversupply is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Wateruse in well completions will be reduced with time and technology. Water could be replaced by N2, CO2, Natural Gas, Foam etc.
 

Caper11

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Not 100% sure who is doing it, cant remember, but there is a company using a new tech similar to steam injection but requires no water. Wish I could remember who

Are you thinking of TAGD? Athabasca oil is playing around with it.


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Caper11

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CO2 flood in the Cenovus Weyburn field is one example.


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That's a neat plant, I was there about 5 yrs ago. I wonder if co2 flood will become more popular.

Yah know I'm surprised that no one has brought this up before. There is a carbon tax coming and govts put the spotlight on coal and oil and gas BUT no mention of the forestry industry, co2 is the major material for photosynthesis to occur so co2 is green.


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j335

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CO2 flood in the Cenovus Weyburn field is one example.


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Nothing to do with fracking, it's missible flood to improve oil recovery, does not improve permeability like a frac. They also produce back a bunch of CO2 too. I agree replacements for huge amount of water requirements willcome, them engineers are smart but in the meantime the states will use a huge amount of water and not recycle it.
 

j335

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Are you thinking of TAGD? Athabasca oil is playing around with it.


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Nope that's testing the carbonate heavy oil formation, TAGD likely won't work though as its a pretty expensive operation.
For those that think the current in situ oilsands are huge wait till we unlock the carbonate formations, even bigger than the oilsands.
 

j335

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Better double check those facts

Don't recycle your water between fracs up in NE BC? At my old company we sure did for our fracs up there.
0% is required to be recycled in the states that I'm familiar with.
 

S.W.A.T.

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Don't recycle your water between fracs up in NE BC? At my old company we sure did for our fracs up there.
0% is required to be recycled in the states that I'm familiar with.

Please elaborate on the recycling of water and fracs in Canada not causing earthquakes and not being cowboy frac happy, some of the world's largest fracs are montney shale gas Hz wells. Don't get me wrong there are pro's and con's but when it comes to drilling and completions I am happy and proud to say Canada leads the way but much more can be done. Also not so proud to say I have seen lakes drained for this process. Less then 10% return on water isn't much to recycle
 
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