Recession just around the corner?

[eagle eye]

I would say housing in Canada in general not being specific to one place has fallen significantly. I have friends that work in ft Mac apparently significant price drops there already. My guess is the falsely inflated prices will hold steady for a while now before a big pullback again as I feel were in a housing bubble while not as bad as 08 it needs a correction or it will be a problem. Remember not long ago the bank of Canada raised interest slightly? Remember it was to curb what was happening in Canada's economy. Places like Toronto and Vancouver are kinda on their own as they don't rely on things like oil etc to grow. I wouldn't be going out buying 500,000$ houses if I worked in oil right now that's me personally. Aside from that it is almost time for some brapppppp so that's what needs focus right now lol.

 

[scrfce]

Id agree its regional. I know plenty of guys in the mac that have changed their future plans and taken their properties off the market because they bought peak and now its saturated with places goin 10-15+% less then previous years.
Hard to recoup that wen you bought a place at 750-900k.

The slowdown and layoffs have really thrown a wrench into the lives of alot of honest hard working people.
And to the few asses that claim oh well they shouldnt have went deep on a mortgage or rely on O&G, ur dicks, explore empathy and walking in other peoples shoes before spouting off on the net. Not every oil worker is a irresponsible white oakley wearin diesel stacked douche

Over the last few years anybody and i mean anybody would have felt secure enuf to make that jump into a overpriced home wen they landed jobs not with a contractor but with shell, suncor etc. not many would forsee mass layoffs even within the big oil companies

 

[snochuk]

Id agree its regional. I know plenty of guys in the mac that have changed their future plans and taken their properties off the market because they bought peak and now its saturated with places goin 10-15+% less then previous years.
Hard to recoup that wen you bought a place at 750-900k.

The slowdown and layoffs have really thrown a wrench into the lives of alot of honest hard working people.
And to the few asses that claim oh well they shouldnt have went deep on a mortgage or rely on O&G, ur dicks, explore empathy and walking in other peoples shoes before spouting off on the net. Not every oil worker is a irresponsible white oakley wearin diesel stacked douche

Over the last few years anybody and i mean anybody would have felt secure enuf to make that jump into a overpriced home wen they landed jobs not with a contractor but with shell, suncor etc. not many would forsee mass layoffs even within the big oil companies

O&G goes in cycles, sucks for those that get caught in it with bad timing. Haven't met the guy yet that predicts the cycles correctly.
Big oil money........as evil as it is good.

For many in O&G the recession has arrived.

 

[gates559]

Id agree its regional. I know plenty of guys in the mac that have changed their future plans and taken their properties off the market because they bought peak and now its saturated with places goin 10-15+% less then previous years.
Hard to recoup that wen you bought a place at 750-900k.

The slowdown and layoffs have really thrown a wrench into the lives of alot of honest hard working people.
And to the few asses that claim oh well they shouldnt have went deep on a mortgage or rely on O&G, ur dicks, explore empathy and walking in other peoples shoes before spouting off on the net. Not every oil worker is a irresponsible white oakley wearin diesel stacked douche

Over the last few years anybody and i mean anybody would have felt secure enuf to make that jump into a overpriced home wen they landed jobs not with a contractor but with shell, suncor etc. not many would forsee mass layoffs even within the big oil companies

The ones that are saying "oh well, doesnt affect me" It will in time. Just takes a while to hit everyone.

 

[gates559]

I would say housing in Canada in general not being specific to one place has fallen significantly. I have friends that work in ft Mac apparently significant price drops there already. My guess is the falsely inflated prices will hold steady for a while now before a big pullback again as I feel were in a housing bubble while not as bad as 08 it needs a correction or it will be a problem. Remember not long ago the bank of Canada raised interest slightly? Remember it was to curb what was happening in Canada's economy. Places like Toronto and Vancouver are kinda on their own as they don't rely on things like oil etc to grow. I wouldn't be going out buying 500,000$ houses if I worked in oil right now that's me personally. Aside from that it is almost time for some brapppppp so that's what needs focus right now lol.

Whats your prediction when oil prices come back, surge in housing prices? Pretty much anyone can predict a wave.
The people buying the 500k homes now will be the ones making 100-150k profit in 2017-18.

 

[eagle eye]

Whats your prediction when oil prices come back, surge in housing prices? Pretty much anyone can predict a wave.
The people buying the 500k homes now will be the ones making 100-150k profit in 2017-18.

I guess I should have elaborated. I wasn't saying it's impossible to profit off fallen housing prices (although I personally don't feel we have bottomed) but I was more saying oil
and gas are unstable and if your relying on it to pay your bills right now I wouldn't be dropping that 500k on a house. Some guys have safe jobs it's never 100% shutdown but it's definitely a big pullback of people don't see that right now they are looking blindly. I can't predict the cycles to the t but you could see it coming a year ago but in normal fashion nobody wants to admit that their job isn't safe before they don't have one. I'm not criticizing what people I'm just sharing my opinions were all entitled. Oil has had some major long term fallouts over the years yes it always comes back im just saying for the time being be smart and play it safe unless you have tons of money and aren't really affected by this.

 

[rzrgade]

You could of just said ... When oil goes down , house prices in an oil & gas area will too....lol

 

[ZRrrr]

Wonder what impact this will have (if any) on oil inventories and non conventional extraction: World’s first subsea wet gas compression starts | Offshore Energy Today

 

[teeroy]

Shell announced today that they just pulled the pin on the Carmon Creek project up here. it had been delayed this spring to "restructure" bids on the project since the recession seemed imminent. now she's all but done, gonna put some folks in a bad way

Royal Dutch Shell Plc quits Carmon Creek oilsands project over lack of pipeline capacity | Financial Post

 

[800HMX]

Unfortunately there is a long way to go before the bottom of the cycle is over. North American Oil Reserves at historical highs, NA production still increasing and with no NA export ability, there is no line of site for either oil or gas price improvement. I hope we exit 2016 north of $60 oil and $3 gas - then we will start to see a recovery in activity.

 

[X-Treme]

Unfortunately there is a long way to go before the bottom of the cycle is over. North American Oil Reserves at historical highs, NA production still increasing and with no NA export ability, there is no line of site for either oil or gas price improvement. I hope we exit 2016 north of $60 oil and $3 gas - then we will start to see a recovery in activity.

And yet gasoline prices just jumped 12 cents per litre here. WTF are they blaming this hike on?

 

[deaner]

And yet gasoline prices just jumped 12 cents per litre here. WTF are they blaming this hike on?

I dont consider myself a socialist so dont believe in alot of government intervention......but this is getting ridiculous. They really need to do something. Straight up price fixing and gouging. I live a couple miles from the US border and gas down there is just over 2 bucks a gallon.

 

[gates559]

Anyone see the new stipulations some banks imposed on Alberta oil field workers with regards to buying homes? They will now be looking at your last two years of income, subtracting all overtime and bonuses. Trucks or other forms of income will not be considered.
CMHC and Genworth are now asking for 10-30 percent down, even for people with a great track record.

Even worse if your self employed.

 

[Absledder]

Anyone see the new stipulations some banks imposed on Alberta oil field workers with regards to buying homes? They will now be looking at your last two years of income, subtracting all overtime and bonuses. Trucks or other forms of income will not be considered.
CMHC and Genworth are now asking for 10-30 percent down, even for people with a great track record.

Even worse if your self employed.

To be fair they were super lenient before. When me and some of my coworkers were fresh out of school, the banks were willing to loan me over half a mil with only 5-10 percent down. I kept it reasonable and didn't come anywhere near maxing out what they would give me but I know a few guys who weren't as smart with there money. 20 yr olds with 3 months on the job out of school should not be handed that much money that easily in my opinion.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[neilsleder]

To be fair they were super lenient before. When me and some of my coworkers were fresh out of school, the banks were willing to loan me over half a mil with only 5-10 percent down. I kept it reasonable and didn't come anywhere near maxing out what they would give me but I know a few guys who weren't as smart with there money. 20 yr olds with 3 months on the job out of school should not be handed that much money that easily in my opinion.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yah I can't believe how much some guys get approved for. They are financed to the max with truck and stuff and still get approved for 450000. Maybe this will help the housing price stay realistic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[S.W.A.T.]

Maybe and hopefully it put everything back in check.

 

[gates559]

I agree but this is putting a hurting on men that have worked in the oilfield for years and have made good financial choices. They are screwing anyone in the industry.

Why should someone in the oil industry pay 30 percent down while someone in the same financial position working in forestry pay 5 percent down. DISCRIMINATION.
Will not affect home prices as rentals will be in high demand. So less homeowners, more tenants. Rich get richer.

 

[sc800]

Anyone see the new stipulations some banks imposed on Alberta oil field workers with regards to buying homes? They will now be looking at your last two years of income, subtracting all overtime and bonuses. Trucks or other forms of income will not be considered.
CMHC and Genworth are now asking for 10-30 percent down, even for people with a great track record.

Even worse if your self employed.

Where did you get this information from?

 

[gates559]

Wife's a realtor. Many mortgage broker friends. We have seen it getting worse and worse over the last few months, mostly from Genworth and CMHC. They keep asking for more and more.

 

[sc800]

Wife's a realtor. Many mortgage broker friends. We have seen it getting worse and worse over the last few months, mostly from Genworth and CMHC. They keep asking for more and more.

Ok, I have been lending for 17 years also. CMHC and GE have not made any official changes specifically for oil field workers. They have always used a two year average of o/t and bonuses etc. They are getting a little stickier which is understandable. They would not ask for 30% down as anything over 20% down is not insured anyways. I do lots of lending for oil field workers that fly in and out of F. Mac as well around here and Saskatchewan and just did two this week.