Recession just around the corner?

[teeroy]

Trucking rates (all rates for that matter) are just like oil prices, its supply and demand, if there are 20 trucks in line for 18 jobs then rates will lower accordingly until 2 give up and find work in another field.

yeah, the oil companies won't be happy until new canadians have taken over every aspect of the transportation industry. won't that be fun

 

[moto.racerx]

yeah, the oil companies won't be happy until new canadians have taken over every aspect of the transportation industry. won't that be fun

Government?
http://calgaryherald.com/business/l...bridging-measures-for-alberta-foreign-workers

 

[teeroy]

Government?
Federal government approves bridging measures for Alberta foreign workers | Calgary Herald

TFW's don't buy fleets of peterbilts

 

[ABMax24]

Upon entry to Canada New Canadians are given 2 choices, the keys to a Yellow Cab, or the keys to a Peterbuilt...

 

[Joholio]

Oil is above $50!

 

[lloydguy]

no to mention their rates never came back up from the last "recession" in 2008

I'm with teeroy on this one.It's not fair to pre judge this guy on weather or not he can afford to cut his rate by
25% untill you know what that rate is.I'm sure there are sectors in the patch as a whole that make more money
than around where I am,but around here competition for work is and always has been cut throat.

Ex. My X run's a facility locally, in 2009 the backhoe guy that did all of the work in her area was informed by Calgary
that his rates had to be cut by 20% or someone else would get his work. He hadn't raised his rate in almost 15 years
so where does the money come from to cut them?
Another example is in 1998,1999 my uncle started drivers at $24 an hour,last summer (14 years later) he was looking
for a relief driver and was offering $27 (had no shortage of applicants) That's a 12.5% wage increase in 14-15 years.
Meanwhile housing has gone up 300% in that same time period,and in the same area.

Diesel has come down 10 cents from when oil was $100 ,so a 20% rate cut would be a hard hit unless a really high rate
was in place to begin with.

You guy's have already moved past this,I am just throwing in my 2 cents on teeroy's post afew pages back.

 

[takethebounce]

Oil is above $50!

It isn't going to stop there either. They determined the bottom for oil prices was about $45-55 barrel. Now they are going to inflate the prices to find out what the market is willing to bare. OPEC has their hands in much of this. Over night across the country pump fuel went up $.10-.20 a liter. It will be back at a $1.00 soon enough and keep rising.

OPEC's secretary general even suggested oil could hit $200 barrel in the nearer future. That would easily be $1.80-$2.00/liter.

 

[pistoncontracting]

It isn't going to stop there either. They determined the bottom for oil prices was about $45-55 barrel. Now they are going to inflate the prices to find out what the market is willing to bare. OPEC has their hands in much of this. Over night across the country pump fuel went up $.10-.20 a liter. It will be back at a $1.00 soon enough and keep rising.

OPEC's secretary general even suggested oil could hit $200 barrel in the nearer future. That would easily be $1.80-$2.00/liter.

Again, I'm curious how, what or why the price will go up with reserves still climbing. Even with the slow of production and racking of rigs. There is still less demand then supply.

Maybe wrong, but there is just not enough global growth happening to justify it. If the American war machine fires up, that would definitely eat up some stock.

 

[pfi572]

my bud in Red Earth owns and runs a potable water hauling business. one of the big oil companies he services has asked him to lower his rates by 25%....that's f'n crazy. he is livid

I am sure he works for others in the area .
The ones i have worked with will be billing a couple company's for the same load of water.
When things where busy some were making up to $300-$400 a hour by the time they soaked a couple company's hrs for same load .
What goes around comes around.
It's all in the dispatching as anyone in the trucking end will know.

 

[teeroy]

I am sure he works for others in the area .
The ones i have worked with will be billing a couple company's for the same load of water.
When things where busy some were making up to $300-$400 a hour by the time they soaked a couple company's hrs for same load .
What goes around comes around.
It's all in the dispatching as anyone in the trucking end will know.

they use a little tandem for camps. the tri's are used for big jobs, a bunch of stuff they are only allowed to use potable water. for a while they were using potable water for fracs, but mostly now boilers and cement jobs. no big jobs, the tri drives stay parked

 

[j335]

Oil is above $50!

$50USD, so $60 CDN... Good old exchange

 

[X-Treme]

$50USD, so $60 CDN... Good old exchange

I think it's closer to $65+ now. FML!

 

[takethebounce]

Again, I'm curious how, what or why the price will go up with reserves still climbing. Even with the slow of production and racking of rigs. There is still less demand then supply.

Maybe wrong, but there is just not enough global growth happening to justify it. If the American war machine fires up, that would definitely eat up some stock.

Correct, somewhat.

With reserves climbing the shelving new rig projects, or shutting down existing ones is a result of the reduction of investment made by oil companies. Oil companies do not want to invest new money into infrastructure when the reserves are high. The problem begins with that. Larger operations shutting down, small sites closing, margins are lower, not as much overhead is required and so on. Some of the projects being shut down now weren't going to go into operation for a handful of years. But the prices and market as of today do not justify the investment today. Oil companies rarely care about tomorrow.

Eventually those reserves decline, and the lag time between companies shutting down major operations and finding new supplies to meet the demand, even if its a minor growth of %3-5 could take an extended period of time to start up, maybe several years. What was possibly a billion dollar investment (likely much more than that in the tens of billions, maybe hundreds!) in current projects that would have produced product in 4-6 years will cost double, maybe triple and be behind the production required to sustain the reserves. Then you will see prices skyrocket. That could still take 10 years. But maybe not.

I read this today-

"oil fields around the world naturally decline by an average of about 5% per year. In order to overcome this decline oil companies need to develop about 200 billion barrels of oil supplies over the next decade and a half just to meet demand."

If they are not willing to invest today, we will pay tomorrow. Unfortunately.

I just want to add, I am hardly a smart guy, this is just my opinion and what I have seen. Maybe I have it all wrong, but I rarely see major corporations and especially oil companies looking out for the consumer. The only thing that matters to them is the bottom line. A decrease in profits means a decrease in their investments and they are not going to wait around for the possibility of maybe making a few dollars verses losing much more.

 

[800HMX]

Correct, somewhat.

With reserves climbing the shelving new rig projects, or shutting down existing ones is a result of the reduction of investment made by oil companies. Oil companies do not want to invest new money into infrastructure when the reserves are high. The problem begins with that. Larger operations shutting down, small sites closing, margins are lower, not as much overhead is required and so on. Some of the projects being shut down now weren't going to go into operation for a handful of years. But the prices and market as of today do not justify the investment today. Oil companies rarely care about tomorrow.

Eventually those reserves decline, and the lag time between companies shutting down major operations and finding new supplies to meet the demand, even if its a minor growth of %3-5 could take an extended period of time to start up, maybe several years. What was possibly a billion dollar investment (likely much more than that in the tens of billions, maybe hundreds!) in current projects that would have produced product in 4-6 years will cost double, maybe triple and be behind the production required to sustain the reserves. Then you will see prices skyrocket. That could still take 10 years. But maybe not.

I read this today-

"oil fields around the world naturally decline by an average of about 5% per year. In order to overcome this decline oil companies need to develop about 200 billion barrels of oil supplies over the next decade and a half just to meet demand."

If they are not willing to invest today, we will pay tomorrow. Unfortunately.

I just want to add, I am hardly a smart guy, this is just my opinion and what I have seen. Maybe I have it all wrong, but I rarely see major corporations and especially oil companies looking out for the consumer. The only thing that matters to them is the bottom line. A decrease in profits means a decrease in their investments and they are not going to wait around for the possibility of maybe making a few dollars verses losing much more.

Well said. Initial decline on new production is more like 20% for the first 2 -3 yrs, then it levels off to around 5%. Hopefully the capital investment is recovered in the first few years.

 

[Skegmeister]

TTB your thoughts are close on how large companies think. There is one small part that that may not entirely accurate.
Big oil plans well into the future. Longer than you think. As far as ahead as 60 years of resource data from poking here and there finding out where the oil is.
Today the hot spots are Oilsands and central Asia.
Big oil has been poking around up in the Arctic for years to get the mother lode of oil and LPG under the Beaufort and off of Alaska. Think about what oilsands was back in the 70's. Not too much going on, only a couple projects and then WHAM!! Now there are huge projects spending money and pumping oil out.
This costs a ton of money to develop and for every barrel sold today, a couple bucks goes into the long term slush fund for the day when the the rush heads up there or where ever then next big discovery is found.

 

[Summitric]

Weatherford international has just announced 5000 job cuts immediately

 

[teeroy]

Weatherford just cut 5000 jobs and signals another 3000 to come. 14% of there work force.

Weatherford international has just announced 5000 job cuts immediately

ninja'd

 

[DRD]

When it bounces back it will over correct and start the cycle over again.


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[Mike270412]

And I promise I won't waste it all on hookers and blow this time.

When it bounces back it will over correct and start the cycle over again.


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[X-Treme]

And I promise I won't waste it all on hookers and blow this time.

Well then, that right there puts you in the running for the Province's new Premier.