Recession just around the corner?

[blastoff]

Suncor.com - Suncor accelerates spending reductions in response to lower crude price environment
1,000 people cut

Thats chump change for Suncor, with the amount of sub contractors they have on sites. Too bad but jee whiz there is some big wages that will be missed by some people. Now Suncor will want to lower the pay rates or bring in out of country for less money.

 

[800HMX]

Written by anonymous ;



When I was five years old, my Dad took my Mother and I to Jamaica. It was my first trip anywhere, and it was paradise. My Dad wore a gold nugget Rolex, and carried literally thousands of dollars in cash in his front pocket. He bought my Mother a diamond that made every woman jealous, and we were rich. And then oil went to $10 and the nearly 5,000 rigs that were drilling in the US went to 1100. We were broke, and although my Dad didn’t sell his gold nugget Rolex, he had me put it in the floor safe of the home we lived in on Cornett. Since then, I’ve lived through my own oil boom and bust, and likely will see a few more. My skin grows thicker by the minute.


What I find entertaining are the theories manufactured in an effort to explain the feast or famine nature of the O&G life. Supply, demand, dictators, war, cold winters, WMDs, bailouts, etc. You name it, I’ve heard it, and if you’re in the O&G, you can add a few descriptors yourself I’m sure. The point is, no one knows if and or when any or all of these influencers will drive the price of oil up or down; one can only speculate. However, and as silly as it sounds, anyone can predict two things; it will go up, and it will go down. The key is being right. Rarely is anyone right, or at least consistently right. If and when you are right, everyone loves you, but the minute you’re wrong, the booing begins.


You’d think that by now, someone really smart would have figured out a way to strike a balance between growth and sustainability, but for the most part, the only companies that can stay steady are the ones that have figured out how to make hay, and sit on it. The small guys not so much, which is why so many get washed away in the huge swells of the O&G storms.

So, instead of worrying about how many rigs are being stacked, how low the price of oil will go, or whether you’re the next to be let go; focus on doing your job, servicing your customer, and getting your house in order, because before long, the World will give us a reason to be excited once again.


Oh, and if you happen to have a nugget Rolex, they’re back in, so wear it proudly. You know who you

Another perspective !!

Very wise words and a great perspective from someone who has seen these cycles before!

 

[DRD]

Crash in oil and talk of interest rates going up might make for an interesting year.

 

[rzrgade]

Interest rates will not rise in a recession...............

 

[DRD]

Interest rates will not rise in a recession...............

If the recession Canada wide. As our dollar falls it makes manufacturing out east grow, Canada doesn't revolve around the patch

 

[rzrgade]

I would not bet on that...........lol .

Do you think the banks (& bank of Canada) are unaware as to the amount of household debt currently in Canada ?
If so then, why would the banks raise interest rates and thus increase the amount of forecloseure`s . Not to mention the ensuing mass sell offs and devaluation of most everything the banks have as equity............???

Would you please enlighten us ,as to why now would be the time, that those in power would raise interest rates..........i would love to know......

 

[fredw]

Life will go on with 40 dollar oil, and for many bussiness better than when it was 120 a barrel... Might be a good thing for alberta to realize that..

 

[AreWeThereYet]

If the recession Canada wide. As our dollar falls it makes manufacturing out east grow, Canada doesn't revolve around the patch

Yes but it revolves around quite a bit of it, and if there is a recession it will be Canada wide not just Alberta. Luckily for Alberta we also have natural gas and forestry, and with lower fuel costs people in the logging industry will allow them to keep their payroll.

 

[ZRrrr]

Do you think the banks, out of the kindness of their honest and good hearts, give a damn about the little guy. They are protected against these types of situations and will not lose one cent should rates rise and people default. Banks are smart enough to know how to work every angle. Many banks MADE money on US housing defaults in the mortgage crisis.

I would not bet on that...........lol .

Do you think the banks (& bank of Canada) are unaware as to the amount of household debt currently in Canada ?
If so then, why would the banks raise interest rates and thus increase the amount of forecloseure`s . Not to mention the ensuing mass sell offs and devaluation of most everything the banks have as equity............???

Would you please enlighten us ,as to why now would be the time, that those in power would raise interest rates..........i would love to know......

 

[rzrgade]

Banks make money lending it out....if people can not pay it back with interest , there is no money to be made....
Pretty sure banks don't want rows of empty houses.....

while I agree that banks are ruthless in there quest for larger profits,only an idiot would think a major recession will help them achieve that goal.....

 

[Vertical-Extreme]

Life will go on with 40 dollar oil, and for many bussiness better than when it was 120 a barrel... Might be a good thing for alberta to realize that..

This entire province does revolve around the oil industry. And it would be best if everyone pulled there head out of the sand and realized that. The trickle down affects everyone from ceo's to grocery baggers. Will life go on? Yes of course it will. Would everyone benefit if oil hovered around 80-90 bucks... You bet.

Fred how do you feel about 2 dollar wheat and 20 bushel yields ? Cause that's 40 dollar oil for the the rest of the province....

 

[Stompin Tom]

Yesterday I placed an add in a local paper for a Logging truck driver. I received 10 resumes by email, 8 of them from guys in northern Alberta. Have never had that before when placing a help wanted add.

 

[DRD]

I would not bet on that...........lol .

Do you think the banks (& bank of Canada) are unaware as to the amount of household debt currently in Canada ?
If so then, why would the banks raise interest rates and thus increase the amount of forecloseure`s . Not to mention the ensuing mass sell offs and devaluation of most everything the banks have as equity............???

Would you please enlighten us ,as to why now would be the time, that those in power would raise interest rates..........i would love to know......

If you are the Bank of Canada and you want to:
1) Stop households from piling on more debt
2) Slow down a housing market that is overvalued and may be heading for a bubble
3) Prop up your currency since it's falling along with oil prices.
4) Your largest trading partner shows signs it may increase rates, see above
5) Rates are at rock bottom but have proven to not be the panacea for economic slowdown.

Oil and mining is 8% of GDP, the patch is vital to Ab but lesser nationwide. Need to see how all this shakes out.
What's the one easy way to do all the above? Slight increase in rates.

I fix compressors, not economies. I can only repeat what I've read. If I could predict where all this is going I'd be in a different job.

Wow, is it painful to type on this forum

 

[kovs]

Difference between $40 oil and $2 wheat @ 20bu ac is that us farmers will still forge on, seed a crop and hope for the best, oil companies just pull the plug until prices rise.


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[teeroy]

Difference between $40 oil and $2 wheat @ 20bu ac is that us farmers will still forge on, seed a crop and hope for the best, oil companies just pull the plug until prices rise.


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lol....there's a few differences between the patch and the fields. no one gives a fawk when patch guys are on the balls of their azz, you guys would be getting "save the farm" concerts and chit

 

[gates559]

Banks make money lending it out....if people can not pay it back with interest , there is no money to be made....
Pretty sure banks don't want rows of empty houses.....

while I agree that banks are ruthless in there quest for larger profits,only an idiot would think a major recession will help them achieve that goal.....

Banks do not make money by lending money and haven't for many years. Banks make money from derivatives, high frequency trading and raping customers with fees.

 

[rzrgade]

Yeah , right .......ok

 

[chris79]

Difference between $40 oil and $2 wheat @ 20bu ac is that us farmers will still forge on, seed a crop and hope for the best, oil companies just pull the plug until prices rise.


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Its a comparison of the 2 situations. We cant have $2 wheat and low production for a extended period of time or we will be looking for a job in the oil patch. I think every farmer (at least the ones that have been around long enough to see the tough years when you lose money) understands the worry of the general oil patch employee. Cycles happen, you just hope you prepared during the good times to survive the bad ones.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[rzrgade]

This pretty much applies to everyone who contributes to society......well put !

 

[S.W.A.T.]

The cost of things is WAY out of hand, the price of everything needs to come down. Even with the price of oil at record highs the amount of house hold debt kept climbing and now that the bubble is getting weaker folks are freaking out. Fact of the matter is Canada cruised through the "down turn" of 08-09 due to many large scale projects developing in the west, not just AB. Has long been on the radar that the Canadian housing market is extremely over valued and yet everyone piles on more debt, toys, cars, trips etc all with the thought it will be ok because worst case scenario could always sell the house. That didn't work well south of the boarder. I strongly believe the value of things is way out of hand.

My 2 cents

Ps this site is still broken