Recession just around the corner?

[Ron H]

A recession Is societies way of getting rid of the hacks that come along with a boom. To much work means quality goes down because people are all in a hurry to make the most, when actually rushing is only hurting them in the long run... im fortunate that I haven't slowed down, but the quality of my work reflects why I never have. Simple solution, work hard and care about what your doing. Seems no one has any pride in anything anymore.

Agreed when a company culls based on slowdown the better ones remain. Thing is we're in a bit of a bubble here in Alberta, our local economy is quite stable compared to the majority of the globe. In my other hobby (high end audio) I've talked to people in different parts of the globe. There are stories of university educated people having to work at wallmart etc. this based only on personal conversations. Sweden due to their federal policies remained strong, while their local powerhouse (UK) was hit fairly hard. Las Vegas was beaten to a pulp however that place is very much cyclic, a few years ago you could scoop a 3-400k home for in that 100k range.
Locally (AB, and Sask is getting close) most I know here that were "hit" had more global type interests (stocks, investments)rather than local. We really should count our blessings while resources can be somewhat volitile they never shut down completely.

 

[somethingnuw]

kinda strange how the price of oil is dropping with all the BS occuring in the middle east....are the word contoling economists dictating this drop as to cut the cash flow to extremists funded by oil....generally the threat of war increases oil prices....just a thought

No the Islamic state is selling it off for 1/3 of what it was going for... to fund their military in areas where they have taken over the wells

 

[somethingnuw]

I always wonder how many of the "high rollers" we all know with new this, that and the other thing would actually write a big fat cheque for the things they have bought on credit.

What I'm saying is, if they actually had that $50,000 in the bank would they write the cheque for that new pickup or 5th wheel... it's easy to sign on the dotted line, it takes a little more to save up and pay cash.

haha awesome point Pinner... when the old bank account starts building up and you worked your ass off it's harder to spend... prob why the rich get richer and the rest spend more... lol

 

[800HMX]

I work in the oil and gas business at a fairly senior level and spend a good amount to time in the USA with my peers. I am in touch with what is going on with this industry. I don't profess to know how things will work out, but I will share a couple observations.

For most major E&P (exploration and production) companies (majors in the industry). Historically, most of their North American capital budget (60% or more) has been spent in Canada. This trend has changed! Going forward, this budget including short term and long term plans are increasingly moving to and focused in the USA, especially the southern States. This will have the biggest affect on projects in NW Alberta and NE BC but will affect everyone in AB and BC.

There are several reasons for this including: take away capacity (no reason to explore for and produce gas and oil when there is no pipeline or other transportation capacity or vehicle to sell the product); increasing cost of all oilfield services (labor and equipment-across all services), access to land (difficult to access both public and private land to both explore and produce), social license to operate (increasingly difficult to get public support to execute plans); and finally the very restrictive regulatory environment.

The above challenges exist to some extent everywhere, but the burden is way way less in the Southern USA. Just take a look at all the recent purchases made by Canadian Companies. I have been in the industry for over 25 yrs and this is the first time I have witnessed this movement to such a great extent.

Who knows what will happen, BUT IMHO this is a time to be conservative with spending, debt and overall lifestyle! People and companies that don't pay attention in these next few years will probably wish they had.

 

[pfi572]

I work in the oil and gas business at a fairly senior level and spend a fair amount to time in the USA. I am in touch with what is going on with this industry. I don't know how things will work out, but I will share a couple observations.

For most major E&P (exploration and production) companies (majors in the industry). Most of their North American capital budget (60% or more) has been spent in Canada. This trend has changed! Most of their short term and long term plans (and budgets) are increasingly focused in the USA, especially the southern States. This will have the biggest affect on projects in NW Alberta and NE BC and will affect everyone in AB and BC.

There are several reasons for this including: take away capacity (no reason to explore for and produce gas and oil when there is no pipeline or other transportation capacity to sell the product); increasing cost of all oilfield services (labor and equipment-across all services), access to land (difficult to access both public and private land to both explore and produce), social license to operate (increasingly difficult to get public support to execute plans; and finally the very restrictive regulatory environment.

The above challenges exist to some extent everywhere, but the burden is way way less in the Southern USA. Just take a look at all the recent purchases made by Canadian Companies. I have been in the industry for over 25 yrs and this is the first time I have witnessed this movement.

Who knows what will happen, BUT IMHO this is a time to be conservative with spending, debt and overall lifestyle! People and companies that don't pay attention in these next few years will probably wish they had.

Well said my friend and I believe you are 100% correct.
Major I work for just cut huge in Fort Mac. on some if the points you have made.
Drilling till spring and that's it till 2018-19

 

[sledneck_03]

I just sold 2 of my properties, low ball after low ball and had to drop them $55,000 together in the end. House sold for $10,000 less than across the street.... Same size but i got a extra bedroom in basement and an extra bathroom. Buyers market they tell me! They probably had a better realtor.

My new house is 33k over what we agreed on.... I was 30k short of my pre approval and barely got the mortgage for the new place. And i feel like if **** goes south i wouldnt make money/break even on my new one with this buyers market let alone a damn recession.

Just feel like im drawing all short sticks lately!

Just feel like crap, not enjoying life, not excited for my new house at all. Just over it all.


#canadastrong

 

[adamg]

If you set your hopes and expectations low enough, and don't try to do anything risky, you won't be disappointed!

 

[Haggis]

In the O&G industry as a service provider - there is some uncertainty out there for sure with the lower prices. Many of the drilling programs for this winter are 'pending' all of a sudden.

 

[john s]

I just sold 2 of my properties, low ball after low ball and had to drop them $55,000 together in the end. House sold for $10,000 less than across the street.... Same size but i got a extra bedroom in basement and an extra bathroom. Buyers market they tell me! They probably had a better realtor.

My new house is 33k over what we agreed on.... I was 30k short of my pre approval and barely got the mortgage for the new place. And i feel like if **** goes south i wouldnt make money/break even on my new one with this buyers market let alone a damn recession.

Just feel like im drawing all short sticks lately!

Just feel like crap, not enjoying life, not excited for my new house at all. Just over it all.


#canadastrong

Man i understand I'm drawing a lot of short sticks to. Not in the house market but just in life suppose we just have to get on with it hey.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking.

 

[Work2Ride]

Does that mean people will start accepting my lowball offers?

 

[sledneck_03]

Man i understand I'm drawing a lot of short sticks to. Not in the house market but just in life suppose we just have to get on with it hey.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking.

Don't just get on with it, put your shoulder down and damn well push right threw that crap. Bad days come, last.....week ive felt like ****. Stopped exercising, stopped hitting the gym, started eating **** again, felt like **** emotionally and physically.

Today I Feel better.... Not great! But pushing back.

Hope your stuff gets worked out!


#canadastrong

 

[sledneck_03]

Does that mean people will start accepting my lowball offers?

In saskatoon.... Maybe. Markets flooded. Nothings moving.


#canadastrong

 

[john s]

Don't just get on with it, put your shoulder down and damn well push right threw that crap. Bad days come, last.....week ive felt like ****. Stopped exercising, stopped hitting the gym, started eating **** again, felt like **** emotionally and physically.

Today I Feel better.... Not great! But pushing back.

Hope your stuff gets worked out!


#canadastrong

Sometimes I just want a bit of luck to come my way but never seems to happen. A recession would really f me up I really hope it doesn't come.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking. You

 

[Work2Ride]

Sometimes I just want a bit of luck to come my way but never seems to happen. A recession would really f me up I really hope it doesn't come.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking. You

Think about ****ty things and you'll get more of them. Watch The Secret.. I know, phag, serious though, thoughts become things.

 

[camoJoe]

The Days of getting 7% on your savings account are gone... and will never come back, you now get an under rated 0.5% (if that ) banks now make more money from you on service fees then anything else, (used to be free checking and no service fees etc.) and they still use your money for loan capital, for every dollar you leave in the bank they make 12% annually... using your money., they make announcements now every quarter about big , BIG profits, more then ever before.

every time you turn around there is a service fee.... you loose !, the consumer is being consumed ! , but have no fear, !! they cant afford to have you go into a recession, they wont let it happen !!

 

[ZRrrr]

Very good friend of mine watches this sort of thing every day. I asked him his thoughts and here is what he had to say:


"Next recession will start when the world finally realizes government deficit spending will never improve and then the rush out of debt securities begins. Borrowing for all levels of government will be screwed, pensions will go kaput as they hold a lot of debt securities.

Central banks maybe have one more go at trying to get the world economy going again, they will offer governments the option to print money and buy their bonds, only if they offer wide ranging deep tax cuts to get people/corporations to spend, which leads to the previous paragraph. A bad, bad cycle.

Stocks may actually go much higher as the money that comes out of debt securities looks for a place to go.

Cycles are pointing to the end of next year for this to start to manifest itself, time will tell... So I don't think we will see a recession yet in North America.

One thing Canada has going against it is it's level of house prices, dangerously high when compared to the mean."


He is pretty confident a housing price correction is coming to Canada as it has globally. That in itself can have a big impact on our economy as we tie much of our economic growth and strength to housing. Canada is in a housing bubble!

 

[Work2Ride]

I work in the oil and gas business at a fairly senior level and spend a good amount to time in the USA with my peers. I am in touch with what is going on with this industry. I don't profess to know how things will work out, but I will share a couple observations.

For most major E&P (exploration and production) companies (majors in the industry). Historically, most of their North American capital budget (60% or more) has been spent in Canada. This trend has changed! Going forward, this budget including short term and long term plans are increasingly moving to and focused in the USA, especially the southern States. This will have the biggest affect on projects in NW Alberta and NE BC but will affect everyone in AB and BC.

There are several reasons for this including: take away capacity (no reason to explore for and produce gas and oil when there is no pipeline or other transportation capacity or vehicle to sell the product); increasing cost of all oilfield services (labor and equipment-across all services), access to land (difficult to access both public and private land to both explore and produce), social license to operate (increasingly difficult to get public support to execute plans); and finally the very restrictive regulatory environment.

The above challenges exist to some extent everywhere, but the burden is way way less in the Southern USA. Just take a look at all the recent purchases made by Canadian Companies. I have been in the industry for over 25 yrs and this is the first time I have witnessed this movement to such a great extent.

Who knows what will happen, BUT IMHO this is a time to be conservative with spending, debt and overall lifestyle! People and companies that don't pay attention in these next few years will probably wish they had.

Father-in-laws job was just cancelled in Fort Mac and may have to look for new work.

 

[LennyR]

Holy gloom and doomers !! Pretty sure a couple of you guys lamenting on here might not actually be walking the talk. Agreed, probably gonna be another adjustment, as always, but again as always , it'll be area specific in some aspects, and the ones whose head was in the clouds and mind in neutral will suffer. As it should be.
Around here what I notice is the expectation of so many young folks who are fortunate or ambitious or clever enough to enjoy huge incomes. Doesn't always turn out for all of them. The expectation of " I deserve it now" is so much more prevalent and normal rather than " I can afford it now" . Same market swings and interest rate fluctuations as historical trends , just bigger numbers and it seems, less willingness to wait till there's a real ability to afford things , rather than run debt load limits to the max. Every toilet has to be flushed once in a while. Gets full of turds otherwise.

 

[X-Treme]

Holy gloom and doomers !! Pretty sure a couple of you guys lamenting on here might not actually be walking the talk. Agreed, probably gonna be another adjustment, as always, but again as always , it'll be area specific in some aspects, and the ones whose head was in the clouds and mind in neutral will suffer. As it should be.
Around here what I notice is the expectation of so many young folks who are fortunate or ambitious or clever enough to enjoy huge incomes. Doesn't always turn out for all of them. The expectation of " I deserve it now" is so much more prevalent and normal rather than " I can afford it now" . Same market swings and interest rate fluctuations as historical trends , just bigger numbers and it seems, less willingness to wait till there's a real ability to afford things , rather than run debt load limits to the max. Every toilet has to be flushed once in a while. Gets full of turds otherwise.

Now, that's some funny chit right there. No pun intended. ;-)

 

[deaner]

Now, that's some funny chit right there. No pun intended. ;-)

And the even funnier part is that it is totally true. Its funny some of the crap companies and employees that can do really well when the economy is soaring. A slowdown just cleans that stuff up.