Recession just around the corner?

[LennyR]

If one is going to stay put for at least 10 years, and by some chance you are approved with only 10% down, it makes sense to buy. But it's a mentality like your that led to much of the housing crash we just seen.

There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with renting. It is far easier to walk away when renting. It is not so easy to walk away from a mortgage. And when people can't afford to by a TV with cash, how in the hell are they going to come up with 15 or 20% down??

Some people don't want the added expenses of home ownership either... like cost of repair, and everything else that comes with it.

So no... home ownership doesn't always make more sense. The same arguments could be used as to why most people don't want to be self employed, over being an employee.

And besides, if everyone owned there home, there would be no one left to rent too...

Totally disagree, I'll concede that a lot are skeptical of the long term advantages of owning revenue producing , equity gaining properties, fair enough, but renting long term with no plans of ownership , unless you know youre gonna be short term in that location, is absolutely one if the worst financial moves you can make. There have been times when waiting to buy can work out cause of obvious market situations, but planning to always rent, IMO, terrible idea and one that by the time you realize the magnitude of the mistake, it'll be to late to change your situation to at least have your principal residence free and clear whenever and wherever you choose to retire. And everyone renter or owner, bears the expenses of home ownership, some just don't own the home, but the owners cost is borne by the tenant.

 

[pistoncontracting]

I guess I should have made it more clear.

Yes, forever rent would be a terrible idea for most. But some folks never manage to plant roots, or settle, or what have you. And that is totally fine, as long as it's no cost to me.

I think some people fall into the trap of putting home ownership ahead of things like enjoying the freedom of youth. For everyone one person I've heard say they wished they would have bought a house sooner, or spent a little less foolishly, I have heard another say they they wished they would have enjoyed life just a little more. For every person I've heard say they wished they would have made a little more money early one, I hear another say they wished they would have spent a little more time at home with family instead of away working.

For every person I know who has rental properties, and thinks it's a money maker, I know who knows it only as a headache.

To think a rental property is just purely a money maker, usually leaves out the time/hours/ and money spent on up keep. All of which some don't have the luxury of having. At least owning stocks can be bought and forgot if you want. Not a great idea, but can be an option if you choose.

I think people would be much better off if they just concentrated more on enjoying what they have, instead of wishing they had more. Most people on here/everywere else likely make more then enough to live comfortably within there means by just going to work.

Mo money, mo problems... there are however, exceptions to this. But I don't think there the norm.

 

[Alberta Beach Doo]

I agree it's best to buy as soon as you can and get out of the rent pool. You ride the real estate wave but it always ends up. Up. Not to go overboard. I see too many young 25 -30 year olds saying their new first house has to have granite counters. Hardwood stainless appliances. Jeez man. My first house had a roof 4 walls and I was happy. It definitely costs more to live today than a few years ago. I remember at 18 moving out getting my first apartment. 1978. I was making Union labours pay which is equivilant to about 32 bucks an hr today. I could pay a months rent on an apartment 1 bedroom that was about 3 years old, not a dive on what I took home in one week!! My buddy's mom at the time said in Germany where they used to live, it took 3 generations to pay off a house. That day is almost here.

 

[john s]

Please don't look down on me guys but I'm stuck in the renting situation. I hate it I want my own house I'm paying for someone's house but saving up the $30,000 is hard. my wife's friend got given her down deposit from her dad lol. I'm trying to change my career to so I have taken a pay cut. Just got to look to the future. And hope it all works out just feels sometimes that it's not achievable.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking.

 

[Bogger]

Not sure if it's still an option but when I bought my first place I used the 5% down borrowed from my RRSP. Not sure if this applies to you john, but for anyone who is a 1st time buyer it's a good way to speed up the process.

Please don't look down on me guys but I'm stuck in the renting situation. I hate it I want my own house I'm paying for someone's house but saving up the $30,000 is hard. my wife's friend got given her down deposit from her dad lol. I'm trying to change my career to so I have taken a pay cut. Just got to look to the future. And hope it all works out just feels sometimes that it's not achievable.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking.

 

[handyandy]

It would be tough living in big cities. My brother in law is paying $1300 a month to rent a 2 room apartment in calgary. I could buy a nice house with a garage and pay less per month.

 

[john s]

It would be tough living in big cities. My brother in law is paying $1300 a month to rent a 2 room apartment in calgary. I could buy a nice house with a garage and pay less per month.

So true my house in okotoks is 1700 sqft un finished basement. We signed the rent 3 years ago at $1700 now it's $1900. And that's still cheap for round here.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking.

 

[Bogger]

my daughter is paying $1150 for a 1 bedroom basement suite in Calgary. that is the mortgage on a $275K condo... the down payment is the kicker

It would be tough living in big cities. My brother in law is paying $1300 a month to rent a 2 room apartment in calgary. I could buy a nice house with a garage and pay less per month.

 

[Bnorth]

Please don't look down on me guys but I'm stuck in the renting situation. I hate it I want my own house I'm paying for someone's house but saving up the $30,000 is hard. my wife's friend got given her down deposit from her dad lol. I'm trying to change my career to so I have taken a pay cut. Just got to look to the future. And hope it all works out just feels sometimes that it's not achievable.


Sent from my iPhone while wishing the snow was gone so I can go dirt biking.

I'm with you, I also rent. Coming out of school I took a job in a very small town that had highly inflated real estate values and while they have declined over the last 3 years they are still high and it takes 2+ years to sell anything that isn't a bargain. I am not planning on being here long term so I rent. My girlfriend works in Calgary so we also rent a place there again because we are unsure if it would be a long term living arrangement. I want nothing more than to own a home but until my GF and I can find good paying work in the same place it's not going to happen.

 

[j335]

Back to the recession question... IMO oil price is at its low point right now. A few things to keep in mind and reference for this reasoning: When US dollar goes up, oil goes down, take a look at a trend. Supply/demand, lots of US oil right now, this low oil price already causing some cutting of capital programs, expect some drop in oil production reducing supply, and will be self correcting as always. On average US oil needs ~$75/bbl to break even, OPEC countries are even higher (even Saudi) so they don't like long term low oil price either. OPEC meeting November 27th, we'll see what they decide... Hold tight or cut? China has been increasing strategic oil reserves purchasing at this low oil time, sign of increasing demand. The summer/fall US refinery turnaround time is now over, demand will be increasing.
Just a few stuff off the top of my head. My 2 cents, good luck everyone...

 

[pistoncontracting]

Back to the recession question... IMO oil price is at its low point right now. A few things to keep in mind and reference for this reasoning: When US dollar goes up, oil goes down, take a look at a trend. Supply/demand, lots of US oil right now, this low oil price already causing some cutting of capital programs, expect some drop in oil production reducing supply, and will be self correcting as always. On average US oil needs ~$75/bbl to break even, OPEC countries are even higher (even Saudi) so they don't like long term low oil price either. OPEC meeting November 27th, we'll see what they decide... Hold tight or cut? China has been increasing strategic oil reserves purchasing at this low oil time, sign of increasing demand. The summer/fall US refinery turnaround time is now over, demand will be increasing.
Just a few stuff off the top of my head. My 2 cents, good luck everyone...

Just curious how you can say that that US production is high, and then also say that plant turn around time is over and demand will increase?? I would think that with plants down, demand would go up?? American oil production is at a 30 year high, pretty well matching OPEC.

Whats really interesting is how much gold Russia and China are starting to collect.

As for China, I don't think things are so rosy. Iron Ore is falling fast, faster then oil.

I think the trouble is production. Years ago, there were issues with keeping up to demand. In the quest of growing, production is no longer a problem. Consumption is now the issue. The only thing there seems to be a shortage of, is the production of QUALITY products.

 

[j335]

Just curious how you can say that that US production is high, and then also say that plant turn around time is over and demand will increase?? I would think that with plants down, demand would go up?? American oil production is at a 30 year high, pretty well matching OPEC.

Whats really interesting is how much gold Russia and China are starting to collect.

As for China, I don't think things are so rosy. Iron Ore is falling fast, faster then oil.

I think the trouble is production. Years ago, there were issues with keeping up to demand. In the quest of growing, production is no longer a problem. Consumption is now the issue. The only thing there seems to be a shortage of, is the production of QUALITY products.

High oil prod is supply and refineries purchasing oil is demand. Not sure if that makes sense?

As I mentioned it's a bit of a self correcting issue as oil companies have and will cut capital programs causing oil production/supply to drop.

 

[Bnorth]

So low oil prices compounded by the latest voting down of Keystone, will we start to see cuts to capital projects and exploration?

 

[Joholio]

I made some of the best money of my career thru 08 etc... If you are good at your job and actually take pride in it and be a man of your word goes a long way to recession proof your own self. :takincareof#1:

 

[pistoncontracting]

As I mentioned it's a bit of a self correcting issue as oil companies have and will cut capital programs causing oil production/supply to drop.

I think the trouble though, is nations are afraid to loose market share. Thats why the Saudis are doing what they are.

On a side note, I'm really curious what all the 'peak oil' advocates have to say about all this.

 

[j335]

So low oil prices compounded by the latest voting down of Keystone, will we start to see cuts to capital projects and exploration?

From some of the reports I've seen, Keystone isn't really crucial anymore as it was a few years ago to canadian oil. Adding it will allow more flexibility and decrease shipping costs a few bucks a barrel. There's a few projects in the background right now to help market and of course rail shipping. Enbridge line 9B reversal/upgrade (unsure about date and amount), line 61 startup (160,000 bbl/d) in the us, line 6b upgrade (260,000 bbl/d). These will help fill the southern U.S. And Quebec refineries and get better pricing for canadian crude.

 

[pistoncontracting]

So low oil prices compounded by the latest voting down of Keystone, will we start to see cuts to capital projects and exploration?

There is actually more oil going by rail, then what the Keystone will be flowing.
Projected price fall has already racked a few rigs in Southern Sask.

 

[gates559]

I think the trouble though, is nations are afraid to loose market share. Thats why the Saudis are doing what they are.

On a side note, I'm really curious what all the 'peak oil' advocates have to say about all this.

Exactly what I've been wondering, Probably about to release news that the earth produces oil faster than we can use it or theres an alternative to oil just around the corner. Peak oil is obviously bs.

 

[deaner]

Exactly what I've been wondering, Probably about to release news that the earth produces oil faster than we can use it or theres an alternative to oil just around the corner. Peak oil is obviously bs.

Thats what I have been wondering about. I cant believe it isnt in the headlines more but alot of the big oil familys are divesting their oil and gas assets to pursue alternative energy solutions. For them to be doing something like that tells me that they know something that we dont know. I dont think they are doing it out of the goodness of their hearts!

 

[pistoncontracting]

Thats what I have been wondering about. I cant believe it isnt in the headlines more but alot of the big oil familys are divesting their oil and gas assets to pursue alternative energy solutions. For them to be doing something like that tells me that they know something that we dont know. I dont think they are doing it out of the goodness of their hearts!

The big one that comes to mind is the Rockefellars. If you read a little bit though, only 7% of there $870 Million in assets is oil or gas related.

And yes, some charts can show that other forms of energy is on the rise. It's a little less talked about though, that that are VERY heavily subsidized by those terrible fossil fuels. Even in NA, the Ivanpah Solar plant south of Vegas has applied to burn more natural gas. 35% of the plants energy will come from burning fossil fuels. The reason is because the sun isn't giving enough sunshine for it... south of Vegas... in the desert...

And then there is the cost of all of it.

So don't be fooled. It wouldn't suprise me if there is a new tax lurking in the shadows for those trust funds. Or the promise of something else.

Decisions are based money, not morals.