Global vehicle sales expected to decline 22% in 2020

[Summitric]

[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]April 23, 2020 by Allan Janssen[FONT=&quot][/FONT][h=1]Global vehicle sales expected to decline 22% in 2020: IHS Markit[/h]
[FONT=&quot]Global light vehicle sales are forecast to fall 22 percent to 70.3 million units this year in the wake of COVID-19, according to the most recent analysis from IHS Markit.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“The unexpected and sudden nature of the impacts of the pandemic are hitting the autos sector hard, with unprecedented levels of uncertainty around prospects for meaningful global recovery,” said Colin Couchman, executive director, global autos demand forecasting at IHS Markit.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“Market fortunes are expected to be mixed, as delayed and destroyed demand interacts with massive global supply disruption,” he said.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Impacts vary around the world.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Mainland China[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Though most factories are back to work, IHS Markit forecasters caution that it will take time for plants to fully recover, especially as revised COVID-19 working practices make it virtually impossible to rebound to previous operational capacity, among weakened demand conditions.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Mainland China is expected to have a sales decline of more than 15.5 percent year over year, to 21 million units, with concerns on secondary impacts from the global contagion, which could further disrupt the recovery.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]While nearly all dealers across mainland China are back to work, and there are signs of an encouraging uptick in showroom traffic, consumer confidence remains fragile. So far, 12 cities have introduced various incentives to spur sales, including New Energy Vehicle subsidies, scrappage incentives and increased license plate quotas.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]United States[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The U.S. light vehicle market is expected to decline 26.6 percent from 2019 levels to 12.5 million units this year. This is on the heels of a rough first quarter as COVID-19 began to impact key states and stay-at-home orders have prevented dealers from a traditional sales effort with shuttered showrooms.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]While online sales are allowed for most states, declines have been substantial, though inventories remain high.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Europe[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Across western and central Europe, IHS Markit forecasts a 24.9 percent drop in light vehicle sales, to 13.6 million units for the year. European markets will experience mixed recovery cycles, based on local restrictions and guidance, together with varied economic support and stimulus provision.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]COVID-19 lockdowns remain in place across Europe, especially in Italy, Spain, France, and the UK with dealerships shuttered. The timetable for ending lockdown restrictions varies, with some countries considering extending provisions, while others have revealed cautious exit strategies. Markets to watch for grassroots of recovery include Germany, Denmark, Austria and the Czech Republic.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Production Expected to Reflect Demand Levels[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Global light vehicle production is expected to drop 21.2 percent due to COVID-19 – an 18.8 million unit decline over 2019, according to the latest IHS Markit forecasts. The biggest disruption is expected to hit in the first half of the year, with output in Q1 expected to be down by 24 percent year over year and in Q2 by 44 percent as lockdown measures intensify. The balance of the year is forecast to ease, but overall, the second half of the year is expected to be down by nearly 8 percent, compared to an overall decline of 35 percent in the first half.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]www.ihsmarkit.com[/FONT]

 

[LUCKY 7]

Lots of people are not going to spend $$$$ on a new rig unless they really have to.

 

[neilsleder]

I would of guessed a lot more then 22percent.

 

[LUCKY 7]

I'm thinking sled sales will be taking a bit hit too

 

[jhurkot]

 

[MP Kid]

I'm thinking sled sales will be taking a bit hit too

I would’ve expected that as well... sure doesn’t look like pricing has changed any...?

 

[Cyle]

According to dealers sales are still really strong, prices are too. Or they are full of chit.

 

[Rjjtcross8]

Maybe vehicle pricing will finally fall below the clouds?

 

[Rotax_Kid]

It's been an interesting time. A week and a bit ago I asked about what is considered high hours on a vehicle. After some more tire kicking, I worked out the numbers and we decided that buying new would add another year of payments, but based on the mileage we drive, another 2.5 -3 years of vehicle life.

We struggled to find what we wanted in Sask. Started looking in Alberta. Still gives me the heebee jeebees talking about it, but made a deal on a vehicle over the phone, sight unseen. I never thought I would have done that in my lifetime.

Ended up with a trade in value that was higher than max black book value - again sight unseen.

Bought new vehicle with a price that was more than 20 points off of retail - that's price alone without considering the trade.

Delivered to my driveway.

Got 5 quotes on similar vehicles and ended up saving almost a over 8K.

Easiest vehicle purchase I've ever had.

Is it the right time to buy? Dunno..we needed to. Based on what I've gone through over the past 2 months, if you can do it and need it, I'd give it a pretty hard look right now.

 

[ABMax24]

We were considering a new vehicle but not now with everything going on.

Recreational vehicles are going to be a tough sell right now, trailer, sleds atvs, boats. It's weird you can actually have a variety of jet boats to look at here at the dealers. Usually by this time of year there is only a couple left and you are having to wait for one to come in or wait until next year.

 

[catalac]

According to dealers sales are still really strong, prices are too. Or they are full of chit.

full of chit

 

[Lem Lamb]

Yuppers,,, one might think that the 3rd largest world depression is soon to follow...

After cutting all these money making trees for the great give away,,, a planting season will have to take place to balance the books...

Canada can't throw $87 billion dollars in the air for free and not expect to collect it back,,, at 9 to 10's X's the borrowing rate too... ha

The next generation will be so broke that 5 to 7 generations will be at task to pay it back...

Did you know that money trees grow in the forest of taxes... Ha

 

[Cyle]

full of chit

I am 99% sure of that too. One dealer called me back like an hour after I said price was too high asking if I was still interested as another dealer wanted the truck, told them go ahead. Another 2 had similar stories on new trucks, and 1 more on a used. But I priced out close to 10 dealers and the discounts ranged from about $12k-17k off of sticker, not a single one was offering what it should be priced at.

Oh well I bought a used truck today even though I would have bought new if the price was good. But hard to complain about spending $16.5k on a good used diesel.

 

[catalac]

I am 99% sure of that too. One dealer called me back like an hour after I said price was too high asking if I was still interested as another dealer wanted the truck, told them go ahead. Another 2 had similar stories on new trucks, and 1 more on a used. But I priced out close to 10 dealers and the discounts ranged from about $12k-17k off of sticker, not a single one was offering what it should be priced at.

Oh well I bought a used truck today even though I would have bought new if the price was good. But hard to complain about spending $16.5k on a good used diesel.

In context though I bought a 2020 f350 this week, was $18200 off sticker, taking the hedge six months from now I can ship like the last few.

 

[Caper11]

Edson Chrysler is advertising all in stock cars and truck at cost.

 

[Cyle]

Edson Chrysler is advertising all in stock cars and truck at cost.

"cost" to them was $16k off of a $84k sticker truck. Oh but it was technically more, as they added $1,000 worth of accessories, but the only things they could tell me they added was mud flaps and nitrogen to the tires but somehow it was $1000 worth of stuff..... The cost thing is a BS sales tactic. A dealer could say the cost varies by $5k on a truck easy depending how they look at the numbers.

 

[Caper11]

"cost" to them was $16k off of a $84k sticker truck. Oh but it was technically more, as they added $1,000 worth of accessories, but the only things they could tell me they added was mud flaps and nitrogen to the tires but somehow it was $1000 worth of stuff..... The cost thing is a BS sales tactic. A dealer could say the cost varies by $5k on a truck easy depending how they look at the numbers.

Lol, thats their sales tactic, nitrogen in the tires, etched security code in the glass etc. Im pretty sure nitrogen comes in the tires from the factory on new tho???
Regardless, I refuse to pay for that crap. Not part of the deal.
If 16k off is what you were quoted than that is not cost, it was close tho.

 

[pfi572]

Lol, thats their sales tactic, nitrogen in the tires, etched security code in the glass etc. Im pretty sure nitrogen comes in the tires from the factory on new tho???
Regardless, I refuse to pay for that crap. Not part of the deal.
If 16k off is what you were quoted than that is not cost, it was close tho.

Unless it’s changed in the last couple years ?
Nitrogen is done at the dealer on PDI .
Went to look at a truck in dealership and they had a couple trucks sitting in the rims . Asked WTF ? They were installing the nitrogen.
I am the same and won’t pay for it as could care less and didn’t ask to have installed .
The nitrogen itself is free anyway but they say the charge is for the tank and equipment.

 

[catalac]

Lol, thats their sales tactic, nitrogen in the tires, etched security code in the glass etc. Im pretty sure nitrogen comes in the tires from the factory on new tho???
Regardless, I refuse to pay for that crap. Not part of the deal.
If 16k off is what you were quoted than that is not cost, it was close tho.

I agree that stuff gets old, was the reason I quit buying trucks from Lacombe ford, window lip moldings, etched, crap mudflaps etc... $800 when you hit the finance office.

 

[Rjjtcross8]

And the extras up front on a new purchase does not help your trade in or resale value down the road. No one ever said “I’ll give you top dollar since this truck has mud flaps, box liner, 3m, upgraded mats, service plan and a extended warranty”