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May 24, 2024 by Adam Malik
Image credit: Depositphotos.com
Vehicles south of the border are continuing to get older. New data puts the number at 12.6 years, up two months from 2023.
That’s a generally slower pace of growth compared to recent years and more normalized growth, S&P Global Mobility noted in its findings. In 2020, the average age of a U.S. vehicle was 11.9 years.
Furthermore, the group observed that the continued upward trend means continued opportunities for the automotive aftermarket. The aftermarket sweet spot has traditionally been considered to be the 6-12 age group. But as average age has grown, the window has expanded to 14 years.
That means many more vehicles are contributing to industry business now and will in the future, noted Todd Campau, aftermarket practice lead at S&P Global Mobility.
“With more than 110 million vehicles in that sweet spot — reflecting nearly 38 percent of the fleet on the road — we expect continued growth in the volume of vehicles in that age range to rise to an estimated 40 percent through 2028.”
In April at AIA Canada’s National Conference, Campau confirmed that Canada’s average vehicle age is 10.5 years, up from 9.7 in 2020. Canada’s numbers haven’t grown as rapidly as in the U.S. mostly because many older Canadian vehicles have recently been exported to the U.S. In 2023, about a quarter million vehicles were exported across the border, keeping average age lower in Canada and higher in the U.S. (Auto Service World will have more details on this in future news coverage.)
The rise in average age in the U.S. comes even though more vehicles are being added to the fleet as new vehicle inventory returns to more normal levels. S&P Global Mobility reported two million more vehicles in operation (VIO) in the U.S. this year to 286 million in total. However, there are still fewer newer vehicles on the road today than just a few years ago.
Vehicles under the age of six made up 98 million vehicles in 2019, or about 35 percent of VIO. Today they represent fewer than 90 million vehicles. It’s not expected that newer vehicles will hit that mark until 2028, according to S&P Global Mobility.
Instead, older vehicles will drive VIO growth as consumers will hang on to their older vehicles. Indeed, vehicles aged between 6-14 years will make up about 70% or more of VIO for the next five years, serving as a tailwind for auto care opportunities.
Looking at electric vehicles, they too will see growing average age. EVs on U.S. roads reached 3.2 million in January 2023, with registrations surpassing one million units for the first time — a 52% increase from 2022. However, the growth rate was slower than some automakers had expected. As consumer adoption slows, the average age of EVs is likely to rise in the short term.
Currently, the average age of EVs in the U.S. is 3.5 years, a figure that has remained steady since 2019 due to a high number of new registrations.
“We started to see headwinds in EV sales growth in late 2023, and though there will be some challenges on the road to EV adoption that could drive EV average age up, we still expect significant growth in share of electric vehicles in operation over the next decade,” Campau said.
U.S. average age continues its rise
Image credit: Depositphotos.com
Vehicles south of the border are continuing to get older. New data puts the number at 12.6 years, up two months from 2023.
That’s a generally slower pace of growth compared to recent years and more normalized growth, S&P Global Mobility noted in its findings. In 2020, the average age of a U.S. vehicle was 11.9 years.
Furthermore, the group observed that the continued upward trend means continued opportunities for the automotive aftermarket. The aftermarket sweet spot has traditionally been considered to be the 6-12 age group. But as average age has grown, the window has expanded to 14 years.
That means many more vehicles are contributing to industry business now and will in the future, noted Todd Campau, aftermarket practice lead at S&P Global Mobility.
“With more than 110 million vehicles in that sweet spot — reflecting nearly 38 percent of the fleet on the road — we expect continued growth in the volume of vehicles in that age range to rise to an estimated 40 percent through 2028.”
In April at AIA Canada’s National Conference, Campau confirmed that Canada’s average vehicle age is 10.5 years, up from 9.7 in 2020. Canada’s numbers haven’t grown as rapidly as in the U.S. mostly because many older Canadian vehicles have recently been exported to the U.S. In 2023, about a quarter million vehicles were exported across the border, keeping average age lower in Canada and higher in the U.S. (Auto Service World will have more details on this in future news coverage.)
The rise in average age in the U.S. comes even though more vehicles are being added to the fleet as new vehicle inventory returns to more normal levels. S&P Global Mobility reported two million more vehicles in operation (VIO) in the U.S. this year to 286 million in total. However, there are still fewer newer vehicles on the road today than just a few years ago.
Vehicles under the age of six made up 98 million vehicles in 2019, or about 35 percent of VIO. Today they represent fewer than 90 million vehicles. It’s not expected that newer vehicles will hit that mark until 2028, according to S&P Global Mobility.
Instead, older vehicles will drive VIO growth as consumers will hang on to their older vehicles. Indeed, vehicles aged between 6-14 years will make up about 70% or more of VIO for the next five years, serving as a tailwind for auto care opportunities.
Looking at electric vehicles, they too will see growing average age. EVs on U.S. roads reached 3.2 million in January 2023, with registrations surpassing one million units for the first time — a 52% increase from 2022. However, the growth rate was slower than some automakers had expected. As consumer adoption slows, the average age of EVs is likely to rise in the short term.
Currently, the average age of EVs in the U.S. is 3.5 years, a figure that has remained steady since 2019 due to a high number of new registrations.
“We started to see headwinds in EV sales growth in late 2023, and though there will be some challenges on the road to EV adoption that could drive EV average age up, we still expect significant growth in share of electric vehicles in operation over the next decade,” Campau said.
